That's the conventional wisdom for the Men's final. Evgeni Plushenko is going to land two triple in the Free Skate, and when he does no one has a chance to beat him. His victory is a foregone conclusion.
But wait a minute. "No one is unbeatable" Evan Lysacek was quoted as saying the day before the Men's event. And he's right.
The total base value for the most difficult eight jump elements that include two quad toe loops is 11.5 points greater that the most difficult eight jump elements without a quad jump. That is a huge jump deficit for the non-quad skater. They are really behind the eight ball. The non-quad skater has to make up those points in quality of the jumps, and elsewhere; elsewhere being spins, step sequences and Program Components. Do Lysacek or Takehashi have a chance in hell, or are they just fighting for silver and bronze medals?
Maybe. Maybe not
Plushenko will not be attempting the most difficult eight jump elements with two quads, and he has yet to land two quad toe loops in a Free Skate program this season, nor has he landed all his jump elements cleanly in one competition. By the same token of course, Lysacek and Takehashi are not attempting the most difficult non-quad jump elements. So Plushenko's true jump advantage is not clear. It could roughly be a few as five points, or as many as ten.
Plushenko's strategy as evidenced in words and deeds is to blow out the competition on jumps, and he has sacrificed the Program Components to do so. His strategy is a little cynical, since it relies on the judges not marking him down in Program Components as far as might be deserved if the judges used the marks correctly. The Short Program has vindicated that strategy so far. Only his Transition score was modestly marked down compared to the best component skaters. So it seems reasonable to expect that the points he will gain if he lands two quads will more than make up what it might cost him in components.
While Plushenko is betting on the judges shading the components because he is Evgeni Plushenko, the reigning Olympic gold medallist, king of the quad, Lysacek is betting on the judges doing the right thing and using the component marks correctly.
In the past Lysacek has played head games and said he was not planning a quad and then thrown one anyway. For the Free Skate he has a crucial strategic decision to make. If he throws a quad and lands it he makes up most of the jump deficit and winning the gold becomes significantly easier. But if he falls he most likely knocks himself out of any medal at all, unless Takahashi and others crash and burn.
Alternately he can put a clean program out on the ice with two triple Axels and two triple Lutzes, and go for those "elsewhere points." If the judges do the right thing in scoring both he and the others in components there are enough points elsewhere to win, given that Lysacek has spins, steps and components superior to Plushenko's when he (Lysacek) is on. Keep in mind that 0.50 in each component is enough to make up a five points jump deficit, and there are an additional five points potentially to be made up in spins and steps, and more points to be made up in jump quality -- though the latter is less likely as Plushenko is the king of all the jumps at this competition.
Complicating the strategic decision for both skatersLysacek is the start order. Lysacek skates first and has to make his decisions under the assumption Plushenko will skate clean. Plushenko skates last and will know how every skater has performed and been scored before him. He has implied he will throw two quads no matter what happens in the competition, but when his music starts, it will be interesting to see if that turns out to be the case if two are not needed.
In the Short Program, both Lysacek and Takahashi kept it close to Plushenko without quads. They were able to do it not only because of their skills in the non-jumping constituents of their programs, but because the Short Program is a leveler of sorts, with only three jump elements and only one quad permitted. The jump advantage in the Short Program is modest 4.3 points, with five jumps and spins and five components to work to their advantage.
The battle in the Free Skate may turn out to be not only a battle between a quad skater and a non-quad skater, but also between a cynical strategy and an idealistic strategy. It will all depend on whether the judges choose to do the right thing.
Copyright 2010 by George S. Rossano