(4 February 2014)  It could have been a Cinderella story -- down on her luck skater gives a transforming performance and goes to the big dance in Sochi.  But instead U.S. Figure Skating left Mirai Nagasu with nothing but a bronze pumpkin after the Ladies event at U.S. Nationals, where she placed third but was not named to either the Olympic or World Teams.  Instead Ashley Wagner, who placed fourth, was named to both teams, with U.S. Figure Skating citing her superior international record for the past two season.  All of which was entirely according to the rules of the selection process, but still represented a major paradigm shift for the selection of team members.

Although order of finish usually has reigned for team selections for the three decades I have been involved with U.S. Figure Skating (and longer than that), the rules have always included an out by allowing consideration of other competition results in selecting the team.  The primary reason for this, as it has been explained in the past (at least within U.S. Figure Skating) is that if U.S. Nationals were solely the Olympic trials, then the USOC would gain the rights to the event and its revenue.  Historically, the rules in place were written first and foremost to preserve the Association's rights and revenue to U.S. Nationals.

Secondly, the selection rules were structured as they are to allow selection of elite skaters who were seriously injured and could not compete at their best at Nationals, if at all.  Three times in the past injured skaters have been named to the Olympic team, but never have the rules been used to throw a lifeline to a healthy skater who simply did not step up to the task at Nationals when they needed to -- up until this season.

The current detailed yet flexible selection rules were vetted through U.S. Figure Skating committees, presented to the Governing Council and approved by the USOC.  When presented to the Governing Council, where I was a delegate, the rules were not controversial, since they appeared to be no more than a restatement of past practices.  I have yet to find anyone among the U.S. Figure Skating rank-and-file "who got the memo" that the rules would ever be applied the way they were this season.

And therein lies the rub.

First, if U.S. Figure Skating was going apply the rules to base team selection this season on a real two-season ranking for the first time, then it should have made that clear two years ago, and not the last day of Nationals; and second, that ranking should not have been decided in a back room according to flexible criteria unevenly applied to each of the four disciplines.

Whether team selection should be order of finish or a ranking is a value judgment.  But if the future is a ranking system, it needs to be applied uniformly, and changes need to be made.

A rigorous, quantitative process must be established so skaters know exactly how their ranking is calculated.  The rankings need to be calculated and published after each contributing competition so skaters know exactly where they stand in the team selection process throughout the season, and what their goal is to move up in the rankings.  Going into Nationals, skaters need to know how they need to perform to achieve their goal in the rankings, as opposed to their goal in the order of finish.

Adopting a ranking-based selection process, however, will introduce fundamental changes into U.S. skating.

The practice of trying out new programs early in the season, tweaking them through the season, and then peaking for Nationals and then again for the Olympics and/or Worlds will no longer fly.

Skaters will need to be on the top of their game from their first ranking-relevant competition through to Nationals.  They will need to do this for two consecutive seasons, if the rankings reach back that far.  Ranking-based selection will crank up the pressure on the skaters, and increase the chance for injury.  It may introduce attempts to game the system by skaters choosing to compete or not to compete in a competition based on how it will affect their rankings.  It will make the early Grand Prix events more relevant for U.S. skaters.  It will shift the focus from rewarding the accomplishments of individual skaters to maximizing the needs of the Association to have the team produce the best cumulative result.

And finally, it will take the Cinderella story out of competition forevermore as it did this year.