(23 February 2014)  Prior to the start of the figure skating in Sochi we were wondering if the Games would show the U.S. Figure Skating program to be a glass half empty or a glass half full.  At the end, our conclusion is half empty.  Maybe more than half empty.  Not quite as empty as when you when you use your straw to suck the last bit of milkshake out of the cup and it starts to make that slurping sound, but getting close.

OK, maybe we exaggerate for effect, but the U.S. leaves Sochi with arguably its worst Olympic result since 1936, not withstanding the team bronze, which we feel is not a useful measure of the health of the U.S. skating program.  As I write this, the last day of the Games, the U.S. trails Russia in the total medal count by 2.  The USOC, I would guess would probably kill to have two more figure skating medals at this time.

The only category showing clear potential for the U.S. is the Ladies event.  Gracie Gold, who placed fourth, is a much more polished skater than she was a year ago, and could be a force to be reckoned with the next four years if she takes away from these games the right lessons to be learned.  Polina Edmunds in her senior debut showed herself to be a strong competitor with good technical skills and the fundamentals of the necessary artistic skills that will need to be developed further.  Beyond these two women, however, the ladies program is populated by "next-generation" skaters whose progress is currently stalled out.  In our view, Ashley Wagner's effort for the Sochi Games amounted to too little too late.  If she stays in for another four years she will need to do some soul searching of her own on how to restart her career in a quest for 2018.

In the Men's event Jason Brown impressed with his competitive fire and outgoing and engaging presentation.  But he doesn't have a quad, and that is the problem with the U.S. men.  No one seems to have the whole package or knows how to get it.  The U.S. men do well in the junior division internationally, but no one in several years has proven up to the task of being competitive for the top five in the senior ranks.  Until the U.S. produces a man with consistent quads, a take-no-prisoners attitude to competing, and the highest presentation skills, the U.S. has little chance of breaking into the top five at Senior Worlds or the Olympics.  The problem for the U.S. is to figure out how to get there, and get there in the next two years.  Basically, the U.S. needs to figure out how to merge Jason Brown with Max Aaron.

Pairs - oh, the poor, poor U.S. pairs program.  Marissa Castelli & Simon Snapir have improved considerably over the past years, but they showed themselves here to still be a long way from being competitive for the top five, and beyond them the pipeline seems pretty empty.  The U.S. was never a long term pairs power, but up until the late 90's the U.S was at least competitive for the top five.  U.S. pairs needs a major intervention.  The U.S. is simply not producing the kinds of pairs that the international judges reward.

In Sochi, the U.S. used it's only bullet in Dance to win the gold medal.  But the U.S. is now out of ammunition in that event.  Madison Chock & Evan Bates placed eighth, one place lower than 2013 Worlds.  They are currently stalled out, and need to figure out how to reach the next plateau.  Maia and Alex Shibutani, the former World Bronze medalists placed ninth.  The problem with the Shibutanias is getting past the ick factor, to put out on the ice the kind of sexy, emotional dance routine that wins medals.  The audience has to be willing to "suspend disbelief" (as it is called in the movies) that they are not watching a brother and sister team, and the skaters themselves have to get past it as well in order to convincingly adopt that kind of program. If either the audience or the skaters cannot get past the ick factor, maybe it would be better if these two very talented skaters teamed up with other partners at this point.

With the retirement of Davis & White and Canada's Virtue & Moir, the pendulum in Ice Dance is now swinging back to the Russians.

After the Vancouver Games where Russia failed to win a gold medal in any figure skating event, they vowed they would not be embarrassed in Sochi on home ice.  Following the Vancouver Games the Russian association did some soul searching, held a summit to dissect the result and came up with a four year plan to turn things around.  The results here in Sochi are the fruits of those efforts, with medals in three out of four individual events (two gold and a bronze) and a gold in the team event.

Now it is time for the U.S. to do the same thing as we look ahead to the next quad and the Games in Pyeongchang in 2018.