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Mirai Nagasu by the Numbers

by George Rossano

(6 October 2012) Espoo, Finland

Finlandia Trophy is a warm-up competition for testing the waters at the start of the season.  It is at competitions like this the skaters get their "homework" to prepare for the big competitions later in the season.

For the Short Program the results detail and the marks detail paint the following picture for Nagasu

Ladies Short Program Results Detail

Pl. Name Nation TSS TES PCS SS TR PE CH IN Ded
1 Kiira KORPI
FIN 69.27 36.87 32.40 8.00 7.83 8.29 8.21 8.17 0.00
2 Julia LIPNISTKAIA
RUS 64.05 35.50 28.55 7.29 7.00 7.08 7.29 7.04 0.00
3 Mirai NAGASU
USA 52.75 26.20 27.55 7.13 6.58 6.79 7.08 6.88 1.00
4 Isabelle OLSSON
SWE 51.18 27.49 23.69 5.79 5.58 6.00 6.08 6.17 0.00
5 Natalia POPOVA
UKR 48.74 25.64 23.10 5.67 5.58 5.75 5.88 6.00 0.00
6 Juulia TURKKILA
FIN 47.04 25.23 22.81 5.83 5.54 5.54 5.79 5.83 1.00
7 Sonia LAFUENTE
ESP 45.71 23.37 22.34 5.75 5.42 5.50 5.54 5.71 0.00
8 Beata PAPP
FIN 45.59 24.82 20.77 5.04 4.92 5.25 5.33 5.42 0.00
9 Fleur MAXWELL
LUX 44.93 23.06 21.87 5.46 5.08 5.46 5.63 5.71 0.00
10 Jasmine COSTA
EST 42.66 23.78 19.88 5.25 4.63 4.88 5.17 4.92 1.00
11 Alisa MIKONSAARI
FIN 39.54 19.20 20.34 5.13 4.88 5.13 5.17 5.13 0.00

   

Mirai Nagasu Short Program Marks Detail

Pl.     Nation     Segment Score   TES   PCS (factored)   Ded.
3 Mirai NAGASU USA     52.75   26.20   27.55   1.00
# Executed Elements Base Value GOE J1 J2 J3 J4 J5 J6 J7 J8 Scores of Panel
1 3T+3T<< 5.40 -2.10 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 3.30
2 3Lo 5.10 0.58 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 5.68
3 FCSp4 3.20 0.17 0 1 0 1 2 -1 0 0 3.37
4 2A 3.30 0.67 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 3.97
5 StSq2 2.60 0.42 1 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 3.02
6 CCoSp1 2.00 0.83 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2.83
7 LSp4 2.70 1.33 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 2 4.03
    24.30                   26.20
Program Components Factor                  
Skating Skills 0.80 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.50 7.50 7.00 7.50 6.50 7.13
Transitions 0.80 6.00 6.75 6.75 6.00 7.00 6.75 7.25 6.25 6.58
Performance/Execution 0.80 6.75 7.00 6.25 6.25 7.25 7.00 7.25 6.50 6.79
Choreography 0.80 7.50 7.25 6.50 6.50 7.50 7.25 7.50 6.25 7.08
Interpretation 0.80 6.50 7.25 6.50 6.25 7.25 7.25 7.50 6.50 6.88
Judges Total Program Component Score (factored) 27.55
Deductions Falls: -1.00               -1.00

The short program numbers show Nagasu's traditional strengths.  On the plus side she got good marks for some strong spins, a solid double axel and a solid triple loop, together with good skating skills.

The scores also point out a laundry list of homework.

  • T3+3T<< with a fall cost the skater at least 5 points compared to the 3Lz+2T she has been training  prior to this competition.
  • Not having the 2A in the second half cost 0.33 points.
  • Moving the 3Lo to the second half of the program would buy the skater an additional 0.51 points of base value.
  • Level 1 combination spin vs. level 4 cost 1.5 points in base value.
  • Level 2 in step sequence vs. level 4 cost 1.3 points in base value.
  • Program components averaging around 6.5 to 7 are not where the skater needs to be, even at this point in the season.  The Transitions and Interpretation marks scream "work on me, work on me."  At this point in the season Ashley Wagner, Agnes Zawadzki and Gracie Gold are putting on the ice programs with components at least a half to full point higher in each component, with PCS scores near 30 in their short programs.

The Free Skating marks show a similar picture.

Ladies Free Skate Results Detail

Pl. Name Nation TSS TES PCS SS TR PE CH IN Ded
1 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS 124.18 64.89 59.29 7.46 7.21 7.63 7.46 7.29 0.00
2 Kiira KORPI FIN 111.89 50.38 61.51 7.88 7.38 7.42 7.88 7.88 0.00
3 Mirai NAGASU USA 110.34 54.07 57.27 7.33 6.88 7.08 7.29 7.21 1.00
4 Natalia POPOVA UKR 104.65 55.90 48.75 6.08 5.88 6.21 6.08 6.21 0.00
5 Isabelle OLSSON SWE 100.49 51.23 49.26 6.33 5.79 6.29 6.17 6.21 0.00
6 Juulia TURKKILA FIN 96.00 47.33 48.67 6.21 5.92 6.08 6.17 6.04 0.00
7 Sonia LAFUENTE ESP 81.09 41.81 40.28 5.25 4.83 4.96 5.17 4.96 1.00
8 Beata PAPP FIN 73.36 36.54 37.82 4.88 4.50 4.67 4.92 4.67 1.00
9 Alisa MIKONSAARI FIN 72.50 33.97 38.53 4.96 4.54 4.79 4.96 4.83 0.00
10 Fleur MAXWELL LUX 67.64 28.31 41.33 5.25 5.00 4.92 5.33 5.33 2.00
11 Jasmine COSTA EST 66.80 33.46 34.34 4.83 3.96 4.00 4.38 4.29 1.00


Mirai Nagasu Free Skate Marks Detail

Pl.     Nation     Segment Score   TES   PCS (factored)   Ded.
3 Mirai NAGASU USA 110.34 54.07 57.27 1.00
# Executed Elements Base Value GOE J1 J2 J3 J4 J5 J6 J7 J8 Scores of Panel
1 3Lz (e) 6.00 -0.12 0 -1 -1 0 -1 1 1 0 5.88
2 2A+3T 7.40 1.05 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 8.45
3 3F< 3.70 -0.70 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 3.00
4 StSq2 2.60 0.58 1 1 0 1 2 2 1 1 3.18
5 FCSp4 3.20 0.67 2 2 0 2 -3 1 2 1 3.87
6 3F<+SEQ 3.26 x -2.10 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 1.16
7 3Lo+2T 7.04 x -0.23 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 6.81
8 2A 3.63 x 0.25 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 3.88
9 3Lo 5.61 x 0.82 1 1 0 1 2 2 1 1 6.43
10 CCoSp4 3.50 0.83 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 4.33
11 ChSq1 2.00 1.05 1 2 0 1 2 2 2 1 3.05
12 LSp4 2.70 1.33 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 4.03
    50.64                   54.07
Program Components Factor                  
Skating Skills 1.60 8.00 7.25 6.75 7.00 7.50 7.25 7.50 7.50 7.33
Transitions 1.60 7.50 6.75 6.25 5.75 7.25 6.75 7.25 7.00 6.88
Performance/Execution 1.60 7.25 7.00 6.50 6.50 7.25 7.25 7.50 7.25 7.08
Choreography 1.60 8.00 7.25 6.50 6.75 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.25 7.29
Interpretation 1.60 7.00 7.25 6.50 6.50 7.75 7.25 7.75 7.50 7.21
Judges Total Program Component Score (factored) 57.27
Deductions Falls -1.00               -1.00

On the plus side:

  • Consistently strong spins.
  • Four jump elements in the second half.
  • Strong choreographic step sequence and strong GoEs for leveled step sequence.

Needs work:

  • Both flips under-rotated, with one under-rotation resulting in a fall.
  • Edge call on the Lutz.
  • Only one Lutz choreographed vs. two double Axels pulls down the base value.
  • Level 2 in step sequence vs. level 4 cost 0.9 points in base value.
  • Components average 7.15 (vs. 6.88 for the Short Program) is 1/2 to a full point below a medal winning standard.

Average component score for both short and long is 7.02, which is about 1/2 point below recent medal winning performances at Worlds.  Lower Transitions and Interpretation marks indicate the need to beef up the artistic side of both programs.

Currently the skater is about 25 points behind the pace needed for gold medal performances at Worlds or U.S. Nationals.