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Johnny Weir by the Numbers

by George Rossano

(6 October 2012) Espoo, Finland

After two and one-half years away from competition, Finlandia Trophy is the first good opportunity to see how long and winding a road Johnny Weir will have to travel to regain his former skill level, and then to surpass that to be competitive for the gold medal in Sochi, just 16 months away.

The results details and marks details for the Men's event do not paint a pretty picture, though not a hopeless one.  Weir placed fourth here, nearly 47 points behind the winner, Yuzuru Hanyu, the reigning World bronze medallist.  At the top-most level, the TES and PCS results for Weir compared to the winner in each event segment provides the big picture.  Weir has retained (or recovered) most of his skill set in Program Components but has a long road ahead in element scores.

Men's Short Program Results Detail

Pl. Name Nation TSS TES PCS SS TR PE CH IN Ded
1 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP 80.77 42.03 38.74 7.83 7.54 7.83 7.75 7.79 0.00
2 Yuzuru HANYU JPN 75.57 37.97 38.60 7.79 7.42 7.63 7.88 7.88 1.00
3 Richard DORNBUSH USA 71.19 35.56 35.63 7.38 6.88 7.08 7.08 7.21 0.00
4 Johnny WEIR USA 69.03 31.94 37.09 7.46 7.00 7.54 7.42 7.67 0.00
5 Zhan BUSH RUS 69.01 38.50 31.51 6.54 5.88 6.38 6.46 6.25 1.00
6 Misha GE UZB 61.32 30.15 32.17 6.42 6.00 6.42 6.58 6.75 1.00
7 Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE 57.30 26.16 31.14 6.38 5.92 6.13 6.25 6.46 0.00
8 Valtter VIRTANEN FIN 56.81 28.43 28.38 5.71 5.50 5.79 5.71 5.67 0.00
9 Kento NAKAMURA JPN 54.14 24.30 30.84 6.54 6.17 5.67 6.33 6.13 1.00
10 Maciej CIEPLUCHA POL 53.59 24.59 29.00 5.96 5.79 5.58 5.79 5.88 0.00
11 Matthias VERSLUIS FIN 52.71 25.69 27.02 5.63 5.17 5.42 5.38 5.42 0.00
12 Mikael REDIN SUI 47.40 21.77 26.63 5.25 5.08 5.21 5.42 5.67 1.00
13 Julian LAGUS FIN 43.79 19.62 25.17 5.08 4.71 4.92 5.21 5.25 1.00
14 Viktor ZUBIK FIN 41.53 19.36 22.17 4.88 4.04 4.54 4.54 4.17 0.00
15 Samuel KOPPEL EST 38.20 16.63 21.57 4.58 4.08 4.25 4.58 4.08 0.00


Johnny Weir Short Program Marks Detail

Pl.     Nation     Segment Score   TES   PCS (factored)   Ded.
4 Johnny WEIR USA     69.03   31.94   37.09   0.00
# Executed Elements Base Value GOE J1 J2 J3 J4 J5 J6 J7 J8 Scores of Panel
1 4T<< 4.1 -1.98 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 2.12
2 3A 8.50 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.50
3 FCSp4 3.20 0.50 1 1 2 0 2 1 1 0 3.70
4 3Lz+2T 7.30 -0.12 0 -1 1 0 0 1 -1 -2 7.18
5 StSq3 3.30 0.67 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 3.97
6 CSSp3 2.60 0.20 1 0 1 0 1 1 -1 -2 2.80
7 CCoSp3 3.00 0.67 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 1 3.67
    32.00                   31.94
Program Components Factor                  
Skating Skills 1.00 7.50 7.50 7.50 8.25 7.25 7.75 7.25 6.00 7.46
Transitions 1.00 6.75 7.50 7.00 7.50 7.00 7.00 6.75 5.25 7.00
Performance/Execution 1.00 7.50 8.25 7.25 8.50 7.25 7.50 7.50 6.75 7.54
Choreography 1.00 7.25 8.00 7.50 7.75 7.50 7.00 7.50 6.75 7.42
Interpretation 1.00 7.50 8.25 7.75 7.50 7.75 7.50 8.00 7.50 7.67
Judges Total Program Component Score (factored) 37.09
Deductions                   0.00

Weir trailed the leader in the Short Program by only 1.65 points in PCS, but 10.09 points in TES, with most of the latter in the solo quad toe loop which was severely under-rotated.  Except for the Transitions score, the component marks are promising for this point in his comeback, though the fact that some judges went into the fives and sixes is a concern.  The lack of a jump element in the second half is also an issue.  Putting the triple Lutz combination into the second half will be important this season, where we expect most of the men will have one if not two jump elements in the second half of their short programs.

To challenge the best, the scores are sending the following messages for the Short Program:

  • A clean quad toe loop is essential.
  • Few of the men attempted a triple-triple combination, but that will not be the case at Worlds or the Olympics.  A triple-triple for the combination will be essential.
  • Even just moving the triple-double combination into the second half will buy 0.73 points, and having 3Lz+3T in the second half would buy an extra 3.81 points of base value.
  • GoEs for elements 4 and 6 are mediocre for a medal winning performance.  GoEs in general are behind the pace for a gold medal performance.
  • Program components averaging near 7.5 are a good start, but behind a medal winning performance, where marks of 8.5 or higher are likely to be seen.

The Free Skating marks show a similar picture, with one additional area significant issue -- jumps in general.


Men's Free Skate Results Detail

Pl. Name Nation TSS TES PCS SS TR PE CH IN Ded
1 Yuzuru HANYU JPN 172.56 90.70 81.86 8.21 7.92 8.38 8.21 8.21 0.00
2 Richard DORNBUSH USA 168.80 92.12 77.68 7.92 7.58 7.79 7.88 7.67 1.00
3 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP 154.43 72.95 81.48 8.08 7.83 8.25 8.25 8.33 0.00
4 Kento NAKAMURA JPN 133.28 66.94 68.34 7.04 6.67 6.71 6.92 6.83 2.00
5 Johnny WEIR USA 132.39 56.65 75.74 7.50 7.25 7.50 7.83 7.79 0.00
6 Misha GE UZB 126.60 61.76 65.84 6.25 6.13 6.83 6.75 6.96 1.00
7 Zhan BUSH RUS 125.28 60.44 65.84 6.75 6.25 6.42 6.83 6.67 1.00
8 Maciej CIEPLUCHA POL 124.23 61.31 62.92 6.00 5.96 6.29 6.50 6.71 0.00
9 Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE 120.54 60.28 60.26 6.17 5.71 6.08 6.13 6.04 0.00
10 Mikael REDIN SUI 98.87 49.61 49.26 5.04 4.50 4.88 5.13 5.08 0.00
11 Valtter VIRTANEN FIN 95.12 43.80 51.32 5.33 4.83 5.08 5.13 5.29 0.00
12 Matthias VERSLUIS FIN 92.21 44.63 48.58 5.17 4.54 4.75 5.08 4.75 1.00
13 Julian LAGUS FIN 90.67 40.89 49.78 4.96 4.67 4.88 5.17 5.21 0.00
14 Viktor ZUBIK FIN 89.53 43.69 45.84 4.75 4.33 4.63 4.63 4.58 0.00
15 Samuel KOPPEL EST 80.70 38.62 42.08 4.42 4.08 4.13 4.33 4.08 0.00


Johnny Weir Free Skate Marks Detail

Pl.     Nation     Segment Score   TES   PCS (factored)   Ded.
5 Johnny WEIR USA     132.39   56.65   75.74   0.00
# Executed Elements Base Value GOE J1 J2 J3 J4 J5 J6 J7 J8 Scores of Panel
1 4T< 7.20 -1.83 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 -3 5.37
2 3A 8.50 -1.50 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 7.00
3 3F (e) 5.30 -0.82 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 4.48
4 StSq1 1.80 0.83 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2.63
5 FCSp4 3.20 0.25 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 3.45
6 2Lo 1.98 x -0.75 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 1.23
7 3A+2T 10.78 x 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 10.78
8 2Lz 2.31 x 0.00 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.31
9 3Lz<+2T 6.05 x -0.70 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 5.35
10 3S 4.62 x 0.23 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 4.85
11 CSSp1 1.90 0.08 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 0 1.98
12 ChSq1 2.00 1.05 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3.05
13 CCoSp4 3.50 0.67 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 1 4.17
    59.14                   56.65
Program Components Factor                  
Skating Skills 2.00 7.50 7.50 7.25 7.25 7.50 7.50 7.75 7.75 7.50
Transitions 2.00 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.50 6.25 7.25
Performance/Execution 2.00 7.75 7.75 7.25 7.75 7.00 7.25 7.75 7.25 7.50
Choreography 2.00 7.75 8.25 7.50 8.00 7.25 7.75 8.00 8.00 7.83
Interpretation 2.00 7.75 8.25 7.50 7.50 7.50 8.25 7.75 8.00 7.79
Judges Total Program Component Score (factored) 76.74
Deductions                   0.00

A deficit of nearly 34 points in TES and nearly 6 points in PCS is a heavy burden to overcome the next 16 months

On the plus side:

  • Some strong spins.
  • Five jump elements in the second half.
  • Strong choreographic step sequence and strong GoEs for leveled step sequence.

Needs work:

  • Jumps, jumps, jumps!
  • Edge call on the flip.
  • Level 1 spin costs 1.1 points in base value  vs. level 4.
  • Components average of 7.67 (vs. 7.4 for the Short Program) is at least one point below a gold medal winning standard.

Average component score for both short and long is 7.55, which is about one point below recent medal winning performances at Worlds.  Lower Transitions marks and higher Choreography and Interpretation marks follow past performance for Weir.  These component marks are better than his worst and worse than his best from his former competitive experience.  Component marks here put Weir essentially at the level he was when he retired in 2010.  Now he needs to build on that to take his component scores to the next level.

Currently the skater is about 50 points behind the pace needed for gold medal performances at Worlds or U.S. Nationals.